Thursday, April 9, 2020

The 20%

In a debate on another thread about the claim that the percentage of "closed cases" is what we should be looking at, I think this can be a very useful statistic, even though, as I first said, the actual percentage of infected people who will die from COVID-19 is unknown.

For example, the latest numbers from the global scoreboard I am using, the global number of "confirmed cases" now stands at 1,535,086, the number of deaths stands at 89,823, and the number of recoveries stands at 353,497, which is 20% of all closed cases.

So that is definitely one of the numbers we should be looking at. And in the five days since that discussion started that 20% has remained constant. It is therefore possible to project, that as of today, based upon the number of "confirmed cases," once *these* cases are resolved, the number of deaths *as of today* - April 9, 2020, can be projected to be about 20% of 1,535,086, or about 307,000 deaths worldwide.

Therefore, another number we should be keeping an eye on is the number of "confirmed" cases.

Assuming that the number of "confirmed cases" is based upon a consistent yardstick unaffected by changes in testing and reporting.

And politics.

According to Ron Paul's Liberty Report from this morning, the claim was made that the reported number of deaths from heart attacks and other maladies, like pneumonia have suddenly dropped off a cliff.

If this claim is true, it implies that the daily death count from heart attack and pneumonia etc. are being manipulated and bundled into COVID-19 death stats in order to influence the political response to COVID-19.

Another number worth looking at is the annual number of flu related deaths.

According to the CDC website, "CDC estimates that from 2010-2011 to 2013-2014, influenza-associated deaths in the United States ranged from a low of 12,000 (during 2011-2012) to a high of 56,000 (during 2012-2013).

The number of deaths in the U.S., so far, attributed to COVID-19 is 14,795. Slightly above the reported low of 12,000 flue deaths in 2011-2012 and well below the 56,000 reported flu deaths during the 2012-2013 flu season.

From the point of view of my untrained eye, so far it still looks like COVID-19 is just another version of the flu.


  1. The Rhaposdy...


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Some very old stuff

Four of the essays I wrote back in the 1990s.